JPSRA 2016, VOLUME 7, NUMBER 3

Bogalecka Magda, Kołowrocki Krzysztof
Modelling critical infrastructure accident consequences – an overall approach
In the paper the probabilistic general model of critical infrastructure accident consequences (GMCIAC) including the process of initiating events, the process of environment threats and the process of environment degradation models is proposed. Next, the methods of its parameters statistical identification are presented. Futher, the marine traffic across the world and sea accidents were observed. Their initiating events and environment threats coming from released chemical substances as well as environment degradations in the neighbourhood region of sea accident were analysed. Then, the process of initiating events, the process of environment threats and the process of environment degradation were analysed and their states are distinguised.
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Dziula Przemysław, Kołowrocki Krzysztof
Modelling operation process of Global Baltic Network of Critical Infrastructure Networks
The paper presents an approach to modelling operation process of critical infrastructure networks located within certain area. The approach has been conducted basing on networks located within the Baltic Sea area, being however also general concept of network of critical infrastructure networks operational process analysis. Operation process of particular critical infrastructure network has been defined, and then its characteristics described, by applying a semi-Markov processes modelling approach. Further, similar approach has been conducted to model operation process of network of critical infrastructure networks. On the base of models of operation processes of certain critical infrastructure network, and network of critical infrastructure networks, general approach to Global Baltic Network of Critical Infrastructure Networks modelling is presented as well.
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Guze Sambor, Kołowrocki Krzysztof
An approach to Baltic Port, Shipping, Ship Traffic and Operation Information Critical Infrastructure Network operation process
The goal of the article is to analysis of static and dynamic industry installations existing in the Baltic Sea Region performed to classify them as a network of networks. As the result of this analysis, the Baltic Port, Shipping, Ship Traffic and Port Operations Information Critical Infrastructure Network composed of three single critical infrastructure networks are distinguished. In the next step, the operation process for every installations and finally for network of networks are defined.
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Jakusik Ewa, Kołowrocki Krzysztof, Kuligowska Ewa, Soszyńska-Budny Joanna, Torbicki Mateusz
Modelling climate-weather change process including extreme weather hazards for port oil piping transportation system
The climate-weather change process for the critical infrastructure operating area is considered and its states are defined. Further, the semi-Markov process is used to create a general probabilistic model of the climate-weather change process for the critical infrastructure operating area. To construct this model the vector of probabilities of the climate-weather change process staying at the initials climate-weather states, the matrix of probabilities of the climate-weather change process transitions between the climate-weather states, the matrix of conditional distribution functions and the matrix of conditional density functions of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the climate-weather states are defined. Preliminary applications of the proposed model to the climate-weather change process for the port oil transportation system operation area are presented.
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Jakusik Ewa, Kołowrocki Krzysztof, Kuligowska Ewa, Soszyńska-Budny Joanna, Torbicki Mateusz
Modelling climate-weather change process including extreme weather hazards for maritime ferry
The climate-weather change process for the maritime ferry operating at Port Gdynia and at Baltic Sea open waters between Gdynia bay and Karlskrona bay is considered and its states are defined. Further, the semi-Markov process is defined and used to create a general probabilistic model of the climate-weather change process for the maritime ferry operating at considered areas.
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Jakusik Ewa, Kołowrocki Krzysztof, Kuligowska Ewa, Soszyńska-Budny Joanna, Torbicki Mateusz
Identification methods and procedures of climate-weather change process including extreme weather hazards for port oil piping transportation system operating at under water Baltic Sea area
There are presented the methods of identification of the climate-weather change process. These are the methods and procedures for estimating the unknown basic parameters of the climate-weather change process semi-Markov model and identifying the distributions of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the climate-weather states. There are given the formulae estimating the probabilities of the climate-weather change process staying at the particular climate-weather states at the initial moment, the probabilities of the climate-weather change transitions between the climate-weather states and the parameters of the distributions suitable and typical for the description of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the particular climate-weather states. The proposed statistical methods applications for the unknown parameters identification of the climate-weather change process model determining the climate-weather change process parameters for the initial point of the port oil piping transportation system are presented.
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Jakusik Ewa, Kołowrocki Krzysztof, Kuligowska Ewa, Soszyńska-Budny Joanna, Torbicki Mateusz
Identification methods and procedures of climate-weather change process including extreme weather hazards of port oil piping transportation system operating at land Baltic seaside area
There are presented the methods of identification of the climate-weather change process. These are the methods and procedures for estimating the unknown basic parameters of the climate-weather change process semi-Markov model and identifying the distributions of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the climate-weather states. There are given the formulae estimating the probabilities of the climate-weather change process staying at the particular climate-weather states at the initial moment, the probabilities of the climate-weather change transitions between the climate-weather states and the parameters of the distributions suitable and typical for the description of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the particular climate-weather states. The proposed statistical methods applications for the unknown parameters identification of the climate-weather change process model determining the climate-weather change process parameters for the port oil piping transportation system operating at land Baltic seaside area are presented.
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Jakusik Ewa, Kołowrocki Krzysztof, Kuligowska Ewa, Soszyńska-Budny Joanna, Torbicki Mateusz
Identification methods and procedures of climate-weather change process including extreme weather hazards for the maritime ferry operating at Gdynia port area
There are presented the methods of identification of the climate-weather change process. These are the methods and procedures for estimating the unknown basic parameters of the climate-weather change process semi-Markov model and identifying the distributions of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the climate-weather states. There are given the formulae estimating the probabilities of the climate-weather change process staying at the particular climate-weather states at the initial moment, the probabilities of the climate-weather change transitions between the climate-weather states and the parameters of the distributions suitable and typical for the description of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the particular climate-weather states. The proposed statistical methods applications for the unknown parameters identification of the climate-weather change process model determining the climate-weather change process parameters for the maritime ferry operating at Gdynia port area are presented.
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Jakusik Ewa, Kołowrocki Krzysztof, Kuligowska Ewa, Soszyńska-Budny Joanna, Torbicki Mateusz
Identification methods and procedures of climate-weather change process including extreme weather hazards for maritime ferry operating at Baltic Sea open waters
There are presented the methods of identification of the climate-weather change process. These are the methods and procedures for estimating the unknown basic parameters of the climate-weather change process semi-Markov model and identifying the distributions of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the climate-weather states. There are given the formulae estimating the probabilities of the climate-weather change process staying at the particular climate-weather states at the initial moment, the probabilities of the climate-weather change transitions between the climate-weather states and the parameters of the distributions suitable and typical for the description of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the particular climate-weather states. The proposed statistical methods applications for the unknown parameters identification of the climate-weather change process model determining the climate-weather change process parameters for maritime ferry operating at Baltic Sea open waters are presented.
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Kołowrocki Krzysztof, Soszyńska-Budny Joanna
Modelling critical infrastructure operation process including operating environment threats
In the article the traditional semi-Markov approach to a complex technical system operation process modeling is developed to modelling a critical infrastructure operation process including operating environment threats.
The method of defining the parameters of this operation process is presented and a new procedure of their determining in the case when the critical infrastructure operating threats are not explicit sepatated in this process is proposed.
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Kołowrocki Krzysztof, Soszyńska-Budny Joanna
Modelling port piping transport and shipping critical infrastructures operation processes including operating environment threats
In the paper, the traditional semi-Markov approach to a complex technical system operation process modeling is proposed to modelling a critical infrastructure operation process including operating environment threats. Next the model is applied to real critical infrastructures such as the port oil piping transportation system and the maritime ferry technical system.
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Kołowrocki Krzysztof, Soszyńska-Budny Joanna
Identification of port oil piping transportation system operation process including operating environment threats
In the paper, the traditional semi-Markov approach to a complex technical system operation process modeling is proposed to modelling a critical infrastructure operation process including operating environment threats. Next the model is applied to real critical infrastructures such as the port oil piping transportation system.
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Kołowrocki Krzysztof, Soszyńska-Budny Joanna
Identification of maritime ferry operation process including operating environment threats
In the paper, the traditional semi-Markov approach to a complex technical system operation process modeling is proposed to modelling a critical infrastructure operation process including operating environment threats. Next the model is applied to real critical infrastructures such as the maritime ferry technical system.
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Kołowrocki Krzysztof, Soszyńska-Budny Joanna
Safety of multistate ageing systems
Basic notions of the ageing multistate systems safety analysis are introduced. The system components and the system multistate safety functions are defined. The mean values and variances of the multistate systems lifetimes in the safety state subsets and the mean values of their lifetimes in the particular safety states are defined. The multi-state system risk function and the moment of exceeding by the system the critical safety state are introduced. The exemplary safety structures of the multistate systems with ageing components are defined and their safety functions are determined. As a particular case, the safety functions of the considered multistate systems composed of components having exponential safety functions are determined. Applications of the proposed multistate system safety models to the evaluation and prediction of the safty characteristics of the oil piping transportation system is presented as well.
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Kołowrocki Krzysztof, Soszyńska-Budny Joanna
Prediction of climate-weather change process for port oil piping transportation system and maritime ferry operating at Baltic Sea area
There are presented the methods of prediction of the climate-weather change process. These are the methods and procedures for estimating the unknown basic parameters of the climate-weather change process semi-Markov model and identifying the distributions of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the climate-weather states. There are given the formulae estimating the probabilities of the climate-weather change process staying at the particular climate-weather states at the initial moment, the probabilities of the climate-weather change transitions between the climate-weather states and the parameters of the distributions suitable and typical for the description of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the particular climate-weather states. The proposed statistical methods applications for the unknown parameters identification of the climate-weather change process model determining the climate-weather change process parameters for the initial point of the port oil piping transportation system are presented.
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Kołowrocki Krzysztof, Soszyńska-Budny Joanna
Modelling climate-weather change process including extreme weather hazards for critical infrastructure operating area
The climate-weather change process for the critical infrastructure operating area is considered and its states are introduced. The semi-Markov process is used to construct a general probabilistic model of the climate-weather change process for the critical infrastructure operating area. To build this model the vector of probabilities of the climate-weather change process staying at the initials climate-weather states, the matrix of probabilities of the climate-weather change process transitions between the climate-weather states, the matrix of conditional distribution functions and the matrix of conditional density functions of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the climate-weather states are defined. To describe the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the particular climate-weather states the uniform distribution, the triangular distribution, the double trapezium distribution, the quasi-trapezium distribution, the exponential distribution, the Weibull distribution, the chimney distribution and the Gamma distribution are suggested and introduced.
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Kołowrocki Krzysztof, Soszyńska-Budny Joanna
Identification methods and procedures of critical infrastructure operation process including operating environment threats
In the paper, there are presented the methods for identification of the critical infrastructure operation process on the basis of statistical data coming from this process realizations related to the critical infrastructure operating environment threats. These are the methods and procedures for estimating the unknown basic parameters of the critical infrastructure operation process semi-Markov model and identifying the distributions of the critical infrastructure operation process conditional critical infrastructure operation process sojourn times at the particular operation states. There are given the formulae estimating the probabilities of the critical infrastructure operation process straying at the particular operation states at the initial moment, the probabilities of the critical infrastructure operation process transitions between the operation states. Moreover, there are given formulae for the estimator of unknown parameters of the distributions suitable and typical for the description of the critical infrastructure operation process conditional sojourn times at the operation states. Namely, the parameters of the uniform distribution, the triangular distribution, the double trapezium distribution, the quasi-trapezium distribution, the exponential distribution, the Weibull’s distribution and the chimney distribution are estimated using the statistical methods such as the method of moments and the maximum likelihood method. The chi-square goodness-of-fit test is described and proposed to be applied to verifying the hypotheses about these distributions choice validity. The procedure of statistical data sets uniformity analysis based on Kolmogorov-Smirnov test is proposed to be applied to the empirical conditional sojourn times at the operation states coming from different realizations of the same critical infrastructure operation process.
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