JPSRA 2015 VOLUME 6, NUMBER 3

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Arraiza Juan, Aginako Naiara, Kioumourtzis Georgios, Leventakis George, Stavropoulos Georgios,Tzovaras Dimitrios, Zotos Nikolaos, Sideris Anargyros, Charalambous Elisavet, Koutras Nikolaos
Fighting Volume Crime: an Intelligent, Scalable, and Low Cost Approach
Volume Crimes (aka petty crimes) take place on a daily basis affecting citizens, local communities, as well as business and infrastructure owners. In this paper, we present a novel intelligent surveillance solution (P-REACT) that integrates video and audio analytics both on-site (using an embedded platform connected to local sensors) and centrally on a cloud service. This intelligent surveillance system has been conceived and designed to anticipate volume crimes in areas where video surveillance is allowed by current legislation and more specifically in shops and public transportation systems; intended as a modular and low cost solution. The capability of dynamically adapting the analytic algorithms that are performed on-site provides a more accurate detection of crime evidences.[full text]
Yohan Barbarin, Dominique Sérafin
PREDICT project: PREparing for the Domino effect In Crisis siTuations
The PREDICT project aims at delivering a comprehensive solution (PREDICT Suite) for dealing with cascading effects in multi-sectorial crisis situations covering aspects of critical infrastructures. The PREDICT solution based on the three following pillars: methodologies, models and software tools, will increase the awareness and understanding of cascading effects in crisis situations. Two types of tools that will be coupled together are being developed: a decision support system and a foresight and prediction tool. Three test cases are being elaborated in three different location across Europe to validate the PREDICT suite. The decision makers will benefit from the PREDICT Suite which will improve their capability to respond and enhancing their preparedness on domino effects.[full text]
Berg Heinz-Peter, Fritze Nicole
Reliability and vulnerability of transformers for electricity transmission and distribution
In the last years the failure frequency of transformers increased, e.g. due to ageing or external hazards. In particular fires and explosions of main oil-filled transformers are considered as critical. Therefore, international experiences of transformer failures at nuclear and non-nuclear power plants and at substations have been investigated in more detail. Consequences of transformer failures with respect to a reliable electricity transmission and distribution as well as measures to enhance the reliability of critical infrastructure and to avoid blackouts are addressed.[full text]
Mieczysław Borysiewicz, Aleksej Kaszko, Karol Kowal, Sławomir Potempski
Loss of offsite power caused by tornado in Surry NPP – a case study
The aim of this work was to perform the real case study for the US Surry Nuclear Power Plant which was touched down by tornado in 2011 causing the electrical switch yard destruction and loss of offsite power. Probabilistic methods have been applied to assess the reliability of the reactor shutdown and effective heat removal after this accident. The reactor protection system and auxiliary feedwater system were thoroughly analysed in the context of their safety features designed to prevent the reactor core damage. The emergency power system reliability has been also considered due to the fact that some components of the safety systems are electrically operated. Moreover, time-dependent analysis has been performed in order to address the level of damages after an extreme external event like tornado. Depending on the severity of such events the time required to restore the electrical grid may be significantly different and longer than 24 hours. The reliability and requirements for safety systems are changing with time and these changes have been taken into account as well.[full text]
Bukowski Lech A., Feliks Jerzy
Fuzzy logic expert system for supply chain resilience modelling and simulation
The aim of this paper is to present the concept of the supply chain resilience assessment in the case of disruptive events occurrence. Firstly, the methods for modelling uncertainty in terms of their application to assess this type of risk will be discussed, and then the concept of a fuzzy logic expert model enabling a quantitative assessment of supply chain resilience will be presented. Finally the structure of the simulation model has been proposed, which consists of the partial resilience models, namely: security, survivability and recovery ones. In the course of the simulation process, it is possible to identify the rules involved in system output as well as changes in resilience level which account for changes in inputs values.[full text]
Demichela Micaela, Gallo Mosè, Salzano Ernesto
A review of the methodologies for the resilience assessment in the process industry
A widely accepted definition of resilience is the intrinsic ability of a system to adjust its functioning prior to, during, or following changes and disturbances so that it can sustain required operational safety under both expected and unexpected conditions. These concepts have been applied in the process or manufacturing industry with different attempts in switching from the traditional risk management approach to a resilience one, still finding a lack of clarity in the definitions and in the objectives and, consequently, a lack in the methodologies and tools to support those efforts. The attempts and the need for further research or clarification is discussed in this paper.[full text]
Mohamed Eid, Dominique Serafin, Yohan Barbarin, Krzysztof Kołowrocki, Ewa Kuligowska, Joanna Soszyńska-Budny
A resilience model based on Stochastic Poison Process
Critical Infrastructure (CI) Preparedness and Resilience modelling, simulation & analysis (MS&A) is a major issue in CI protection (CIP) and crisis management. This is due to the rapid growth of the inference of the smart complex systems in the modern society activities. The concept of resilience in CIP is not yet clearly defined. However, “resilience” is often used as a measure of the system good behaviour facing a given threat. Under a given threat, a CI may evolve within a set of well-defined operating phases. Subsequently, the failure of the CI to provide the expected service will depend not only on the threat nature but also on the operating phase. A tentative probabilistic model is proposed describing the robustness and the resilience of a well-defined infrastructure facing a given threat.[full text]
Gonzva Michaël, Barroca Bruno, Gautier Pierre-Étienne, Diab Youssef
A modelling of disruptions cascade effect within a rail transport system facing a flood hazard
The vulnerability of rail transport systems facing flood hazard, increased by the climate change, is a burning issue for the future urban risks management. Analysing the resilience of rail transport systems against flood hazard appears necessary for improving the proper functioning of cities that strongly depend on such critical infrastructures. The critical infrastructures are complex systems in which the components are particularly interdependent. This interdependency implies many failures caused by cascade effect within the system. From dependability methods, this paper provides a global methodology in order to automatically produce the chains of failures caused by cascade effect within a rail transport system facing to a flood hazard.[full text]
Jokšas Benas, Augutis Juozas, Ušpuras Eugenijus, Urbonas Rolandas
The aggregate energy sector criticality risk assessment
One of the aims of this work is to create a method of identification of critical elements (elements or groups of elements) in the energy infrastructure, and this method should allow ranking these critical elements by relevance to consumers (the consumer could be from the systems of different energy sector).The risk estimate of an element is one of the proposed sorting criteria for critical elements or their groups. It allows assessing the importance of the combination of critical elements and takes into account the probabilities of faults of these combinations. The key result of the research is the identification of the weakest links in the system, namely those elements, the failure of which (together with other elements) would lead to the worst consequences for the consumers and response to the availability of the infrastructure element.[full text]
Kopustinskas Vytis, Praks Pavel
Probabilistic gas transmission network simulator and application to the EU gas transmission system
The paper describes the methodology approach and the results obtained by the probabilistic gas network simulator ProGasNet software tool. The ProGasNet has been applied to a number of test cases, all based on real gas transmission networks of the EU countries. Various types of analysis have been performed: reliability, vulnerability, security of supply and various types of results have been reported: supply reliability estimates, time-dependent storage discharge effect, quantitative effects of new infrastructure, security of supply under different disruption scenarios. The ProGasNet model provides an indication of the worst networks nodes in terms of security of supply and provides their numerical ranking. The model is very powerful to compare and evaluate different supply options, new network development plans and analyse potential crisis situations.[full text]
Kozik Rafał, Choraś Michał, Hołubowicz Witold, Renk Rafał
Increasing Protection and Resilience of Critical Infrastructures – Current challenges and approaches
In this paper we present current key challenges with respect to Critical Infrastructure Protection and to their resiliency. As our world becomes more and more interconnected via open networks with the cyberspace, many new challenges arise. Therefore, we frame the problem within three distinctive domains: real world natural events, human (organisational and legal), and cyber one. Within our analysis we present how current technologies, tools and methodologies can be used to address certain problems within those domains. Moreover, we stress the fact that there is a limited number of initiatives that aim at proposing the holistic (all hazard) approach addressing all the domains at once.[full text]
Leduchowska Dorota, Pyznar Maciej
Critical infrastructure in Polish national risk assessment
Polish National Risk Assessment is produced every two years to identify, analyse and evaluate all risks which can cause a significant harm to the national security. Identified risks include natural disasters, major accidents and civil hazards as well as terrorism and other malicious attacks. Critical infrastructure might be destroyed or damaged as a result of events caused by the forces of nature or human action. Simultaneously, destruction or damage to the critical infrastructure might cause a serious threat to the state and the life of its citizens.[full text]
Lewandowski Krzysztof
Massive electricity and communications blackouts on Earth as effect of change the Sun activity
This article shown examples of rapid failure in electrical and communication systems under Threats of CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) from the sun flare. Is presented the past and present results of impact of CME to the Earth magnetosphere. Under these events are generate the massive geomagnetic storms. The solar flare merging from the sun Surface, and emitted powerful bursts of radiation and particles emission CME (Coronal Mass Ejection). This radiation under contract with the Earth magnetosphere ionize upper atmosphere and generate geomagnetic storms. The power of magnitude of geomagnetic storms can destroy or hard damaged the electrician and communications networks. Wide range of these failure can influence to the whole economy of each country. Last information’s from astronomers suggest that in future, in next 50 years, we can expect on Earth a strongly change of sun activity. This article have suggestion to take into consideration for Resilience Modelling for the electrical and communication systems an influence of CME (Coronal Mass Ejection).[full text]
Nowakowska Marta, Tubis Agnieszka
Load shedding and the energy security of Republic of South Africa
Studies on energy security can be found in many academic publications and in government and think-tank reports. Main goal of this article is to present the energy system in the Republic of South Africa, to discuss the phenomenon of load shedding and it indication of proposed changes required to existing solutions. Authors based their research on available literature newspapers articles, direct observation and the interviews with the residents of Johannesburg. South African’s economy is the second largest in Africa, just behind Nigeria. It accounts for 24% of continent’s GDP. It is ranked as an upper-middle income economy by the World Bank. The major producer and distributor of electricity in RSA is Eskom, which provides over 95% of the country’s energy usage. Load-shedding, also referred to as rolling blackout, is an intentionally electrical power shutdown. In South Africa it affect entire country.[full text]
Pestana Maria, Messias Ricardo
Identification of National Critical Infrastructures – DSO comply with European Council Directive 2008/114/EC
The subject addressed in the paper is about the identification of National Critical Infrastructures (NCI). The focus is the result of the responsibilities of EDP Distribuição, the Portuguese mainland Electrical Distribution System Operator (DSO) serving over 6 million customers in a regulated business with clearly defined tasks, to comply with the transposition to the Portuguese legislation of the European Council Directive 2008/114/EC. Having EDP Distribuição under their responsibility several assets and systems which are essential for the maintenance of vital societal functions, health, safety, security, economic and social well-being of people, the ones considered national critical were selected, from a set of more than 400 main premises. Has been identified their major threats and vulnerabilities, which resulted in emergency response procedures named “Operator Security Plan”.[full text]
Piegdoń Izabela, Tchórzewska-Cieślak Barbara, Eid Mohamed
Water Distribution Subsystem: system failure analysis on view of Critical Infrastructure (CI) resilience and preparedness enhancement and management
The proper function of Water Distribution Subsystem (WDS) and its reliability has been a subject of many scientific researches for over 40 years. Important role in water network operation is water failures monitoring and failure analyse relating to its failure frequency index. The main problem of this kind of analyse is lack of data about failure (pipe diameter, pipe length, information on what street occurred the failure, the cause of failure). In this paper authors focus on analysis of water failure pipes for WDS in Podkarpackie Region. The statistical treatment has been made for real, operational data. Failure analysis and statistic treatment was carried out for pipes due to its function: main pipes, distribution pipes and water connections and according to pipe material. The article indicates the main cause of water pipe failure during the design, construction and operation stage, and also functioning dependence on other critical infrastructures. In addition, selected incidental events recorded in the Polish WDS was presented.[full text]
Quan Luna Byron, Garrè Luca, Yang Yongtao
A Bayesian Network approach for risk assessment to a spatially distributed power infrastructure in a GIS environment
One of the most important applications of spatial data regards the ability to inform decision makers on spatially distributed and disaggregated hazards and risks, thus enhancing strategic decision making on how to manage and limit risks for a given area or region and prioritize investments. However, a full risk based adaptation assessment inside a Geographical Information System (GIS) can be cumbersome, since some complex tasks cannot be carried out directly. One example of these tasks involves Bayesian probabilistic analysis and decision making, which is a fundamental component of risk analysis, yet requires dedicated tools/software which usually do not belong to a standard GIS portfolio. For this reason, exploring the various capabilities of a GIS platform in connection with a Bayesian Network (BN) software is essential. The objective is to have an effective tool for knowledge representation and reasoning under the influence of uncertainty that can be displayed in a spatial manner. A case study using this tool was performed to assess the risk levels faced by the electrical distribution system of Long Island because of storm events as the Sandy Storm.[full text]
Alberto Tofani, Antonio Di Pietro, Luisa Lavalle, Maurizio Pollino, Vittorio Rosato, Silvio Alessandroni
CIPRNet Decision Support System: Modelling Electrical Distribution Grid Internal Dependencies
In this work, we present a peculiar application contained in a Decision Support System for Risk Analysis of (inter)dependent Critical Infrastructures under development within the EU FP7 CIPRNet Project. The application shows the efficacy and the benefits derived from a complete information of the multiple (inter)connected infrastructures (electrical and telecommunication) present in a Crisis Scenario. Electrical Distribution operators use SCADA systems to perform remote operations (tele-control) on the electrical grid such to ensure a constant and efficient energy supply to the consumers. Tele-control operations bi-directionally couple telecommunication and electrical networks: faults in one network produce effects, which then reverberate on the other. The work shows how the DSS, based on the damage estimate occurring on the two systems, may predict the correct tele-control operations needed for the restoring of the electrical grid based on topological properties of the electrical substations and the Telecom nodes.[full text]
Eric A. van Kleef, John A. Stoop
Can we cast resilience in concrete?
Infrastructural systems -such as railways- can be characterized as multi-actor socio-technical systems that are able to adapt during their life cycle, both to external disturbances as well as changes in the system itself. The design phase should mark the starting point for a resilient system to prevent ad-hoc and opportunistic design changes. A case study on the design and development of the High-Speed Line railway system in the Netherlands indicates that it is necessary to make both a technical and procedural evaluation of these future user’s possibilities before construction takes place. Once cast in concrete, the adaptive potential has been determined.
The actors during design and operation adapt in different ways. During the design, the focus should be on the question which incentives are driving the designing parties towards a consistent and resilient design. The task for a strategic engineer or architect, is to understand how incentives and requirements influence each other and how they safeguard the future operational variance of the system and its safe performance. Such a strategic engineer should be involved in the project at the functional level, where requirements and incentives are formulated.[full text]